The Nasdaq-100 likely has an inclusion effect, but it is smaller-sample, easier to anticipate, and more entangled with growth-stock momentum than the classic S&P 500 case.
Open noteMay 9, 2026
The Nasdaq-100 likely has an inclusion effect, but it is smaller-sample, easier to anticipate, and more entangled with growth-stock momentum than the classic S&P 500 case.
Mar 11, 2026
Excess returns cluster in the first week after the announcement and before the effective date. Post-inclusion performance is closer to reversal than continuation, so long-window alpha should not be assumed.
Mar 10, 2026
The market is closer to a quasi-stagflation setup than a simple growth scare. Growth is cooling, but sticky inflation and the oil shock make the old bad-data-equals-relief playbook much less reliable.